Pamela McClintock of Variety:
Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures' "The Dark Knight" has a real shot at crossing the $300 million mark at the domestic box office this weekend. If so, it would become the first film in history to hit that mark in its first 10 days.
While filmmaker Christopher Nolan's "Dark Knight" will dominate overall, two new players will try to grab their share of attention -- Sony's R-rated Will Ferrell-John C. Reilly laffer "Step Brothers," which is expected to come in No. 2, and 20th Century's "The X-Files: I Want to Believe," which could see itself in a battle with holdover "Mamma Mia!" for No. 3.
"Step Brothers" opens in 3,094 theaters; "X-Files," 3,185.
The specialty side of the biz heats up as Miramax opens "Brideshead Revisited" in 33 theaters in select markets, while Paramount Vantage bows docu "American Teen" in five theaters. (On Wednesday, Vantage saw widespread layoffs as it ceases to be a standalone specialty unit and becomes a label under big Par.)
Roadside Attraction releases Crosby, Still, Nash & Young concert docu "CSNY: Deja Vu" in six runs.
Through Wednesday, "Dark Knight's" cume was $222.1 million from 4,366 theaters after opening to a record-breaking $158.4 million last weekend. Film also has enjoyed record-breaking weekday numbers -- not counting holidays -- grossing $24.5 million on Monday, $20.9 million on Tuesday and $18.4 million on Wednesday.
"Dark Knight" would need to gross more than $62 million to reach $300 million this weekend, assuming it grosses $16 million on Thursday. Some box observers put the weekend number as high as $75 million to $80 million. Movie has become a phenomenon, and is already destined to gross north of $400 million domestically.
It took "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" 16 days to reach $300 million in domestic grosses, and 17 days for "Star Wars -- Episode III: Revenge of the Sith." Last summer, "Spider-Man 3" crossed $300 million in 19 days.
With "Dark Knight" taking up so much of the oxygen, it's difficult to predict how well "Step Brothers" and "X-Files" will do, although "Step Brothers" is tracking strongly and has the advantage of being the only new comedy.
"Step Brothers," penned by Ferrell and producing partner Adam McKay, is a raunchy romp about two grown men who move in together with their newly married mom and dad. Film was produced by Judd Apatow and Jimmy Miller.
Film is skewing slightly male, and slightly younger among both men and women. Box observers say the film could gross between $25 million and $30 million for the weekend, although they stress that the weekend is tough to read because of "Dark Knight."
Prospects for "I Want to Believe" are harder to pin down. It's been a decade since the feature film "The X-Files" was in theaters, and the follow-up is smaller in scope. Because "I Want to Believe" is skewing male, "Dark Knight" could take away business from the film.
"I Want to Believe" reteams series creator Chris Carter with series stars David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson, who also made the first film together. Follow-up was penned by Frank Spotnitz and Carter.
Fox minimized their financial risk by making "I Want to Believe" for just under $30 million. Film was held up in development as Carter sued Fox over profits to the TV series. Storyline isn't about alien abduction, a main staple of the TV series and the focus of the 1998 film, which grossed $83.9 million domestically, and $105.3 million worldwide.
A year ago, Fox used the same weekend to bow the feature adaptation of another hit TV series, "The Simpsons," to boffo results.
"Mamma Mia!," sporting a cume of $40.6 million through Wednesday, opened to $27.7 million last weekend, the best bow ever for a musical.
Joshua Rich of EW:
The new Mulder-Scully adventure and Will Ferrell's ''Step Brothers'' will try -- and fail -- to unseat ''The Dark Knight'' from its box-office throne...
Based on the critical reaction to both X and Step it appears likely that The Dark Knight will remain on top...And then it becomes the battle for 2nd place....
Next Up: The Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor is unwrapped...
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