Gilded Cages

First, it was the producers who were worried about a possible writers strike in the fall of 2007, now, it seems that concern has spread throughout the industry.

Variety's Dave McNary updates the situation:

Even as the winter holidays loom, Hollywood's facing 2007 with an unmistakably grim directive:

Start stockpiling.

The town's coming down with a fresh, infectious case of strike-itus.

Despite recent pronouncements by WGA West [president] Patric Verrone and exec director David Young that there's no need to be concerned that negotiations won't start until the summer, the prospect of a strike has lit a fire under producers and execs.

Dealing with a possible work stoppage that would start Nov. 1 is becoming a normal part of doing business.

"You're seeing the development process speeding up," one exec said. "Dates for delivery of scripts are going to get moved up, if they aren't already."

Studios are taking a long look at accelerating production schedules, much as they did in 2000 and 2001 in advance of widely anticipated writers and actors strikes that never materialized.

"No studio's going to get caught short," one exec asserted. "We are starting to book space in advance and analyzing the pipeline and schedule. The uncertainty adds in layers of complexity to what's already a tough decision."

The murky labor outlook -- particularly with SAG's contract expiring in June 2008 -- means studios will likely cut back on the number of pics they're planning to release in 2008 and 2009.

Young and Verrone have asserted that the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers was not willing to address key issues such as digital downloads at early negotiations. Young reiterated that stance in a statement issued Tuesday in response to reports about industry worries.

"When industry representatives are prepared to address the vital concerns of writers, we are confident that we can reach a deal," Young said. "Our members must be fairly compensated for their work. Our upcoming negotiations will assure that they are."

For his part, Verrone has insisted that avoiding early talks enhances the WGA's bargaining position and is in line with the guild's past practice. And he's accused the producers org of fear-mongering.

"The AMPTP asserts that, by refusing to negotiate early, we will force our employers to make rash business decisions to prepare for an inevitable strike," Verrone said in a recent message to members. "That simply flies in the face of the last 18 years of Writers Guild history. In the past five WGA (minimum basic agreement) negotiations, we have been able to reach agreement without a strike, even though, in most cases, we did not begin negotiations more than a few months before the contract expiration date."

The AMPTP, which serves as the industry's negotiating arm, has asserted that Young agreed to start talks in January but then reneged after being told by the WGA West board that negotiations couldn't start until September. WGA reps have insisted subsequently that talks could start in July.

In the interim, execs predict stockpiling of scripts and a ramping up of production early next year to get projects finished by late fall, since getting rewrites will become highly problematic if the WGA walks out.

"Strategically, you can use the strike threat now to help move things along and acquire properties," one producer noted. "But six months from now, we'll be saying there's not going to be a strike so that things will keep moving."

Nerves are also jangled at the networks amid planning for the 2007-08 TV season.

"You don't have any alternative but to start planning around a strike taking place," one exec said. "It would be irresponsible to not be prepared."

The May upfronts will be particularly revealing since networks will have to have hammered out the semblance of a schedule that can survive a prolonged writers strike.

The nets continue to play their cards close to the vest -- "You never want to imply to advertisers that there's going to be a strike," said another exec -- but look for some telltale signs that the networks are moving to cover their bases:

--They'll be ordering fewer drama and comedy pilots and more reality.

--There won't be the usual late-spring hiatus in production.

--Continuing shows will get renewed earlier, with more backup scripts ordered so production can continue past Halloween if the writers walk out.

--Shows on the bubble between renewal and cancellation will become more likely candidates for renewal because they represent a smaller gamble than betting on a new show.

--Talk shows, news and game shows will be more likely to migrate to prime time.

--Producers will take a long, hard look at shooting non-union and outside the U.S.

The last WGA strike took place in 1988. The acrimonious work stoppage lasted five months, delaying the start of the fall TV season.

I could be wrong. But after reading the article--I actually think that a Writers Guild of America strike will probably be averted. I say this because of the plans that are in place to deal with what may happen...To have a contingency at the ready this far out...means it "won't" occur

It's not all doom and gloom in Hollywood though, McNary shares happier news from the Directors Guild of America...

The Directors Guild of America has tapped Carl Reiner to receive an Honorary Life Member Award in recognition of his service to the Guild.

The Guild also announced Tuesday that Paris Barclay and Taylor Hackford will receive the 2006 Robert B. Aldrich Service Award. Stage manager/associate director Terry Benson has been selected for the Franklin J. Schaffner Achievement Award, and George Paul will receive the 2006 lifetime achievement award in news direction.

The kudos will be given at the 59th annual DGA Awards on Feb. 3 at the Century Plaza Hotel with Reiner hosting for the 20th consecutive time. The multi-hypenate has won 12 Emmy Awards.

Barclay received a DGA Award and two Emmys for his work on "NYPD Blue." Barclay's served on the DGA's African-American Steering Committee since 1993; he was elected to the national board as an alternate in 1997 and served as third VP from 1999 to 2005, when he became first VP.

Hackford won an Oscar in 1979 for best live-action short film, "Teenage Father" and was nominated last year for directing and producing "Ray." He's been the DGA's third VP, chairs the DGA's political action committee and co-chairs the DGA PAC Leadership Council with Barclay.

Benson has been in the DGA for over 35 years and spent much of his career in public television at PBS' Channel Thirteen/WNET in New York, where he was shop steward, organizer and negotiator. At the Guild, he served on numerous committees and on the national board.

Paul has worked in TV news for nearly 50 years and continues to direct for ABC's "20/20" and "Primetime." He's only the fifth DGA member to receive the award for news direction, and has served as a national board member representing the Midwest since the 1960s.

Kudos to all of the honorees--but especially to Carl Reiner, who is one of this nation's most enduring entertainers...

Hey yo! Yo Ay! Rocky Balboa opens in theaters today--2 days early from its original release date. The reviews for this sixth installment have been surprisingly very positive. Sylvester Stallone's been all over the place promoting the sucker...It will be interesting to see how the film preforms over the extended holiday period. I'm pulling for ya Roc.