Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Ryan's 2015 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Actor Chris Pine, Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs, and directors Alfonso Cuarón and J.J. Abrams will announce the nominations in all 24 Oscar categories on behalf of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences at a special two-part live news conference at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills on Thursday, January 15.

Neil Patrick Harris is set to host the 87th Academy Awards which will broadcast live on ABC on Sunday Feb. 22. Craig Zadan and Neil Meron will be handling their third consecutive Oscar producing gig.

 It is my pleasure to welcome back "Movie Posse" member the very film savvy Ryan to TLR to offer up his predictions for the noms...

Hey everyone, Ryan back again just in time to preview tomorrow's big Academy Awards Nomination Announcement!

This year has to be one of the most wide-open Oscar years in at least the past decade. There is not one single category that is locked up and everything from Best Picture to Best Sound Editing will truly be a surprise come Oscar night. In that same vein, the nominations seem to be just as wide open with some categories like Best Actor and Best Director steaming with 8-9 choices that all seem very possible, while others, like Best Actress and Best Animated Film only providing a few contenders and will be filled up by also-rans (in regards to chance of winning, not quality).

I'm projecting a big day for the Michael Keaton showstopper 'Birdman' with 11 nominations including Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Actress, and Original Screenplay. While Birdman may very well be the favorite come Oscar night, the thing I will be looking to most is to see how many nominations Richard Linklater's 'Boyhood' ends up with come sunrise. I'm projecting it for 6 categories, all of them in the big important categories. If Boyhood gets those 6, then it is certainly strong, but maybe not on the level of Birdman, but if it get something closer to 10 and the below the line support is behind it, then every other contender should watch out. Further, The Imitation Game looks to fulfill its destiny as a true 'Oscar Movie' as I think it will land 10 nominations across the board. The 2 most exciting things to come out of the build up to the Oscars is the rise of Wes Anderson's critically acclaimed 'The Grand Budapest Hotel' (projecting for 8 nominations including Picture and Director), and 'Nightcrawler' and star Jake Gyllenhall's continued appearance on practically every guild nomination ballot. If I had a vote it would go to Gyllenhall who was absolutely insane in his role in the film.

The disappointments I see coming are likely Ava Duvarney's stunning 'Selma' getting a Best Picture nomination, but little else, as the movie has not been able to find the support from the Directors or Actors, or many of the guilds which is key to being a contender. In addition, though Clint Eastwood became the oldest person to ever be nominated for a DGA award yesterday for his helming of 'American Sniper', I think he will miss tomorrow. The Academy's directing branch is a much smaller group, and in so the more populace pleasing 'Sniper' could very well lose out to a more acclaimed work like Damien Chazelle in 'Whiplash' (which itself looks strong with a projected 5 nominations.)

So wake up bright and early tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST to find out if your favorite movie has a chance come Oscar night!

 Thanks Ryan! Be sure to follow him on Twitter for his movie musings and more!

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