Dave McNary and Pamela McClintock of Variety ask Will audiences remember 'Sarah?'
The weekend box office could reveal whether the raunchy romantic-comedy craze set off by Judd Apatow is getting frayed around the edges as Universal opens the R-rated "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" in 2,798 theaters, frontal male nudity and all.
The last two films coming out of the Apatow camp -- "Drillbit Taylor" and "Walk Hard" -- were box office disappointments, although they weren't in the vein of Apatow's more risque titles, "Knocked Up," "Superbad" and "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," all B.O. hits. "Sarah Marshall," which is tonally more in line with the latter pics, will be the first of this type of Apatow film to bow outside of summer.
While U isn't that exposed financially -- "Sarah Marshall" cost $30 million to produce -- it could have a perception problem if the heavily marketed film doesn't take the weekend crown, ahead of the kid friendly Jet Li-Jackie Chan adventure-fantasy "Forbidden Kingdom," which bows in 3,151 theaters.
"Forbidden Kingdom," the first title from Weinstein Co.'s Asian film fund, is rated PG-13. Rob Minkoff ("Stuart Little," "The Lion King") directed.
Also opening is Jon Avnet's Al Pacino crime-thriller "88 Minutes," which has already been released overseas and is battling dismal reviews. Sony, the domestic distrib, opens the pic in 2,168 runs.
Many had expected "Sarah Marshall" to have an easy edge, but tracking hasn't been as strong in recent days as U would like. It's unclear whether the film can open above $20 million, with U expecting a weekend gross somewhere in the low- to mid-teens. "Superbad," "Knocked Up" and "40-Year-Old Virgin" opened to $33 million, $30.7 million and $21.4 million, respectively.
Directed by Nicholas Stoller, "Sarah Marshall" stars Jason Segel as a despondent Angeleno dumped by his hot girlfriend. Segel penned the script.
"Sarah Marshall" is receiving strong reviews, but some tracking numbers show "Forbidden Kingdom" in the lead position.
Latter pic unites Li and Chan on the bigscreen for the first time in a story about a boy who travels to ancient China and helps a band of martial arts warriors free the legendary Monkey King.
"Forbidden Kingdom" will benefit from its PG-13 rating and a broad opening in 3,151 theaters.
Movie could pull ahead if it is able to appeal to younger kids and mine the lucrative family market on top of attracting teen boys and younger men.
"Sarah Marshall" is tracking among older female demos, as well as among males over age 25, but the pic will need to grab younger moviegoers as well.
One bright note: Tracking has been off before when it comes to Apatow's films. But it's still uncertain whether U's unusual billboard campaign will pull moviegoers in or turn them off.
Domestic release of "88 Minutes" has been delayed for more than a year. Overseas, pic grossed roughly $3.3 million, and it is already available on DVD in some territories. Tracking is actually better than expected for the film...
Joshua Rich of EW says:
Strong reviews, a smart marketing campaign, and the Apatow imprint should give the season a much-needed hit... Read More
88 Minutes seems to be the weakest of the bunch given the reviews which is a shame for the talented folks involved...
Next Week: Harold and Kumar 2 Escape from Guantanamo Bay; The talented Tina Fey hires her former "Weekend Update" cohort Amy Poehler to be her Baby Mama; And Ewan McGregor, Hugh Jackman, and Michelle Williams get tangled up in a game of Deception
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